In the 2017 Vidhan Sabha election, the Congress nearly broke the BJP’s political stronghold in Gujarat. However, as the 2022 elections approach, the Congress’s campaign is struggling, and the rise of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) complicates matters further.
Gujarat has been dominated by a two-party race between the BJP and Congress. However, AAP’s emergence is changing this equation. Early C-Voter polls predict that AAP could secure around 17% of the vote, splitting the anti-BJP vote significantly.
Traditionally, the Congress has secured a large portion of the anti-BJP vote, achieving high Index of Opposition Unity (IOU). In 2017, the BJP received 49% of the votes, while the Congress got 42%, capturing around 82% of the anti-BJP vote. Similar patterns were seen in 2012. However, recent C-Voter surveys indicate a potential drop in the Congress’s vote share to 32%, while the BJP’s vote share might slightly decrease to 46%. Consequently, the Congress’s share of the opposition vote could fall to 60%, with AAP gaining around 30%.
Lower IOU scores suggest the BJP could benefit significantly from the split in the anti-BJP vote, potentially increasing their seats from 99 in 2017 to over 140. The Congress’s strong performance in 2017 was due to a robust campaign by Rahul Gandhi, support from Ahmed Patel, Ashok Gehlot, and efforts from young leaders like Paresh Dhanani and Hardik Patel.
In 2022, the scenario is vastly different. Rahul Gandhi is on his Bharat Jodo Yatra and is unlikely to campaign in Gujarat. Ahmed Patel and Rajiv Satav have passed away, and Ashok Gehlot is preoccupied with issues in Rajasthan. The youth brigade has disintegrated, leaving Congress without strong leaders to challenge the BJP.
Despite substantial anti-incumbency sentiment against the BJP, surveys indicate that the BJP retains over 90% of its 2017 vote base. Unless Congress dramatically changes its strategy, it is unlikely to see significant gains.
Losing ground to AAP poses a major challenge for Congress as it prepares for the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Winning in Gujarat, the Prime Minister’s home state, would have been critical for gaining momentum. However, the scattered anti-BJP vote currently benefits the BJP.
As the 2024 Lok Sabha election approaches, the Gujarat election remains crucial. Without a significant shift in political mood and narrative, Congress faces an uphill battle to regain its 2017 position.